ANALYSIS: Less than one in three voters intend to vote Labour, according to the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll.
That is a disastrous result and it’s on Jacinda Ardern.
Her stardust has turned to dust. When Ardern's popularity plummets so does the party's.
To put their result into context, former National leader Simon Bridges was rolled by MPs after scoring 30.6 percent for the party in the May 2020 Newshub-Reid Research poll.
Labour is not even two points above that and they have crashed from much higher heights.
Ardern's party clearly knows it's on the back foot. It knows the electorate is grumpy and warming to the Nats.
That's why on Saturday we saw Labour's Grant Robertson on the attack. He compared National leader Christopher Luxon to failed United Kingdom Prime Minister Liz Truss.
Ardern hinted she's likely going to give herself the longest possible runway to the next election - 12 months, and the countdown starts right now.
On Sunday, there was an attempt to gain ground back with the announcement of an expansion to subsidised childcare assistance and increases to family tax credits.
It's incredibly smart policy from Labour, targeted support for low to middle-income New Zealand families. Middle New Zealand includes swing-voting young families.
But Saturday's attacks were frankly embarrassing for a Government to be engaging in this far from an election. They looked panicked, political and petty rather than a Government committed to guiding Kiwis through a cost of living crisis.
The changes announced on Sunday are a much more constructive way for Labour to differentiate itself from National. It forces a new frontline for the election and takes the cost of living debate away from simply tax cuts and back to families.
The timing of April is perfect as it is just in time to attempt to ease some of the pain of next year's probably even harsher winter of discontent.
Jenna Lynch is Newshub's Political Editor