Election 2023: National, ACT could govern in latest political poll

National gained three points in the poll since March.
National gained three points in the poll since March. Photo credit: Newshub


National and ACT could form a government under the latest 1News-Kantar political poll, with Christopher Luxon's personal popularity slightly bouncing back.

National gained three points in the poll since March. With Labour losing one percentage point and the Greens losing all four points of support gained in the previous poll, they would fall short of governing even with Māori Party support.

The results would mean 47 seats for National and 15 for ACT, giving them one more than the 61-seat threshold required to hold half of Parliament.

Labour would have 46 seats, the Greens would get nine, and Te Pāti Māori would have three assuming they won at least one electorate.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins lost two points of support as preferred prime minister since the March poll but on 25 percent was still ahead of National's Chris Luxon on 18, despite the latter's one-point rise.

It marks a halt in falling popularity for Luxon, who took a five-point hit in the preferred prime minister stakes between February and March.

This latest poll was conducted from 20 to 24 May, coming after the release of the government's Budget:

  • National: 37 percent, up 3
  • Labour: 35 percent, down 1
  • ACT: 11 percent, steady
  • Green Party: 7 percent, down 4
  • NZ First: 3 percent, steady
  • Te Pāti Māori: 2 percent, down 1
  • TOP: 1 percent, steady
  • Democracy NZ: 1 percent, steady
  • New Conservative: 1 percent, steady
  • Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party: 1 percent, up 1
  • Undecided: 12 percent, down 1

Preferred PM:

  • Chris Hipkins: 25 percent, down 2
  • Christopher Luxon: 18 percent, up 1
  • David Seymour: 7 percent, up 1
  • Winston Peters: 2 percent, down 1
  • Chloe Swarbrick: 2 percent, up 1
  • Nicola Willis: 1 percent, steady
  • Jacinda Ardern: 1 percent, down 1
  • Rawiri Waititi: 1 percent, steady

The poll surveyed 1002 eligible voters, weighted for demographics, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval.

The previous survey by Kantar, in March, showed Labour and National both trending down slightly, with the Greens rising four points to 11 percent, ACT up one point - also to 11 - and Te Pāti Māori up two points to 3 percent.

That would have given Labour and the Greens 60 seats, only be able to form a government with Te Pāti Māori's support, while National and ACT with 57 seats would fall short of the 61-seat majority.