Newshub-Reid Research poll: Kiwis think National-ACT-NZ First Government would be chaos

The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Kiwis think a National-ACT-New Zealand First Government could be chaos.

Luxon was bouncing up and down on big blue machinery on Monday - not even a poll drop could wipe the grin off his face. National's fallen in the poll, down 1.8 to 39.1 percent.

Luxon is seizing a dream.

"This is just every boy's dream to jump into a big tractor like this," said Luxon.

But this boy's dream is actually jumping behind the wheel of the country, and that dream is just within reach, though it's gonna be a stretch.

"For New Zealanders watching this, I want them to understand there's a lot at stake, there's an awful lot at risk. This will be a close election."

He's relentlessly on message - and has now rolled out a new one.

Luxon said his strong preference is a Government of National and ACT, but he would work with Peters - even if he doesn't want to. 

"If New Zealand First is returned to Parliament and I need to pick up the phone to Mr Peters to keep Labour and the Coalition of Chaos out, I will make that call," he said. 

He better put Peters on speed dial as on this poll Peters is back in the saddle and cantering back to Kingmaker status.

The results show National and ACT would get 60 seats, one below the 61 seats needed to form a Government. With New Zealand First getting 5.2 percent, it would enter Parliament and be needed to form a Government. 

"People want accountability and they want common sense and they want experience back and above all they want somebody to keep them honest. That's precisely what our record is and what we will do," said Peters.

So, Luxon needs foes to become friends.

Asked if he could work with Winston Peters, ACT's David Seymour said: "Well it's pretty clear from his track record he struggles to work with really anybody. I don't apologise for pointing out that reality, it's just history."

"I think it would be better if ACT and National were governing together," Seymour said.

Asked if he respected Seymour, Peters walked off.

Luxon said that if faced with the choice of three more years of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, he would pick up the phone and have a chat with Peters. 

But voters think his own three-headed coalition would be one of chaos.

The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll asked: Do you think a three-party National, ACT, New Zealand First Government would be a stable or a chaotic Government? 

A hulking majority - 63 percent - said chaotic, while just 26.4 percent thought the rag-tag right would be stable.

Even among National voters, 47.8 percent said it would be chaotic. Of ACT voters, 60.8 percent said it would be chaotic, and 48.2 percent of NZ First voters said it would be chaotic.

"I think most New Zealanders understand more stability would come with a twp-party coalition as we've seen in the past," said Luxon. 

Asked if a National-ACT-NZ First Government would be chaotic, Luxon said: "That is why my preference is a strong, stable two-party coalition Government formed with National and ACT."

Labour's Chris Hipkins wasn't afraid to drop the c-bomb and build a chaotic picture of the right.

"A National-ACT-New Zealand First Government would, by Seymour's own admission, be a right-wing circus," he said.

"I think they'd struggle to put a Budget together."

He pitched himself as the stable one, referring to his stagnating and devastating poll result.

"Labour's vote's actually been relatively stable. National and ACT are coming down again," Hipkins said.

ACT in particular is crashing. Seymour's been lashing out at Peters, at National, threatening chaotic governing arrangements.

"It's actually still a good result for ACT. It shows the election's going to be deadly close."

Deadly close and National pulling out all the stops to point voters in a two-party direction.

Peters said: "All political leaders will learn in time that the voter decides this, not them and not me."

The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted between 17 September and 23 September 2023 with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.