National and ACT are on track to comfortably form a Government, according to our latest Newshub-Reid Research poll.
Despite every effort to capture the public with pledges like free dental, Labour has tanked to numbers not seen since Andrew Little was Labour leader.
Labour needs to break the glass and hit the panic button as this is its crisis poll.
The party's support has collapsed into the terrifying twenties at 26.8 percent. That is a catastrophic 5.5-point fall from our last poll.
On the other side, National will be sounding the celebration siren. It is on 40.9 percent, up 4.3 points.
The Greens are gathering steam. They are on 12.3 percent up 2.7 points.
But ACT's conga line of conspiracy candidates quitting has knocked it down. It's fallen 2 points to 10.1 percent.
New Zealand First is still flirting with the 5 percent threshold at 4.6 percent. That is so, so close to a comeback.
Meanwhile, Te Pāti Māori is at 3.1 percent and the others are nowhere close to what's needed to enter Parliament.
Count the seats and the right-wash becomes clearer. The race is won at 61 seats.
National's 53 and ACT's 13 get them there with some to spare. Together, they would have 66 seats.
The Red and Green team is looking lean. Labour's 34 and the Greens' 16 only take them to 50.
If you add in Te Pāti Māori's four, assuming they get an electorate, then you have 54.
That's more than 10 seats behind.
They're in the dust.
The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted between 3 September and 9 September 2023 with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.