AM's Ryan Bridge believes Labour leader Chris Hipkins will have to concede defeat on Saturday night if the election goes on current polling despite the chance for potential negotiations.
It comes after the latest and last Newshub-Reid Research poll of the campaign showed momentum has continued to swing towards Labour just days before election day.
The results showed National had plummeted 4.6 points to 34.5 percent while Labour picked up one point to 27.5 percent. Greens continue their impressive polling results up 0.7 to 14.9 percent, ACT has stalled at 8.8 percent while the big winners are New Zealand First and Winston Peters.
New Zealand First is up 1.6 points to 6.8 percent and is in the 'kingmaker' position.
This means Labour would get 35 seats, the Greens 19 and Te Pāti Māori three, as long as they hold onto an electorate. That gives the left bloc 57 seats.
On the right, National would get 43 seats and ACT 11 - a total of 54 seats. National and ACT will need nine seats from New Zealand First to cross the 61-seat threshold.
But while the momentum might've shifted towards Labour and the left as National continues its slide amid threats of a second election and squabbling between ACT's David Seymour and Peters, Bridge believes it might be too little too late for Hipkins.
Bridge said the "crucial thing" coming into election day is Hipkins repeatedly ruling New Zealand First and Peters out.
"What is the long and short of all of these polls, basically, on current polling Winston Peters will return to Parliament and he will have a big say in who the next government is," Bridge said.
"He's already ruled Labour out and Labour has ruled him out, which means and this is the crucial thing, I think on election night... unless by some miracle Labour, Te Pāti Māori and the Greens get to 61, which they won't and haven't in any poll recently, then Hipkins is going to have to pick up the phone and concede the election to Luxon because he can't form a government.
"He's already ruled Winston out. He's said he would go back to the polls for a second election over going with Winston, so what else do you do but concede the election and then get up and tell everybody 'I'm sorry we've lost.'"
Fellow AM co-host Laura Tupou questioned if Hipkins might go back on his word on ruling New Zealand First out.
"If you were in a position to form a government if you had him [Winston Peters] on your side, wouldn't you just try?" Tupou questioned.
But Bridge said if Hipkins did go with Peters he would lose "all credibility".
"I would [go with Peters] but he can't, he would lose all credibility. He's staked his whole campaign on the anti-Winston campaign," Bridge said.
Tupou then said if Peters got Labour over the line to victory, Hipkins would have three years to try and "pull back from that".
But Bridge wasn't convinced.
"Can you imagine Winston, Rawiri Waititi, James Shaw and the Labour Party all sitting around the cabinet table or in some form of coalition with one another? Never say never, people go back on their word all the time, but if he is sticking to his word, which I think he will, [then] election night if Te Pāti Māori, Greens and Labour don't get there, which they are very, very unlikely to, Chippy has to stand up there and say 'I lost.'"
Watch the full moment above.
