Election 2023: Sir John Key reveals why he thinks National will win the election, believes New Zealand First getting 5 percent 'inevitable'

  • 13/10/2023

Sir John Key has revealed what he thinks will be "inevitable" for the makeup of New Zealand's next Parliament - Winston Peters being back in it.  

Sir John's comments come as National faces forming a coalition with Peters' NZ First party as well as ACT, based on recent polling.    

NZ First was on 6.8 percent in the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll, up 1.6 points and comfortably above the 5 percent threshold needed to enter Parliament.  

As a result, Peters would again be the kingmaker come Saturday.    

In an interview with Newstalk ZB, Sir John said he believed National would win the election.    

The former Prime Minister and National leader said it looked like there was "no pathway home" for the left bloc, based on the most-recent political polls.    

Sir John thinks, however, the right bloc won't be able to avoid Peters if it wants to form a government.  

"Labour and National, in 2023, look to me like they're going to poll a combined 60 percent," he told Newstalk ZB.    

"If you accept that you've got 40 percent of the vote that's got to scatter... it's just inevitable that he gets 5 percent," Sir John said of Peters.   

But Sir John reckoned National leader Christopher Luxon could manage a three-party coalition.    

"MMP just says to you in the end, 'Look, suck it up - you've got to make it work for the country'… there are many ways of making it work," he told ZB.  

"If you accept that there are many different constructs, I think absolutely they'll make it work for the next three years."  

Sir John isn't the only ex-Prime Minister to endorse his former party to win on Saturday, with both Helen Clark and Dame Jacinda Ardern releasing videos to throw their weight behind Labour.