New Zealand's Reserve Bank Governor has warned that a big slowdown in China's economy or a major drought caused by El Nino could trigger a recession.
So how do we best protect our economy from these external events that are out of our control?
New Zealand Initiative executive director Oliver Hartwich says the Reserve Bank's right to predict tough times are ahead, but it might not be as bad as many are predicting.
"We are still expecting 2.1 percent growth for this year, and we are actually expecting growth to pick up a little bit over the next few years, so by 2018 we may be back to 3 percent," he said on the Paul Henry programme this morning.
"The way that I would put it is that in the hospital of the global economy, New Zealand is in the ward for hypochondriacs."
Watch the video for the full interview with Oliver Hartwich.