Military strategist Mick Ryan predicts Russian President Vladimir Putin will prolong the Russia-Ukraine war into and through 2023.
"He just wants to hold the line until the spring of next year," said Ryan, a retired Maj Gen.
Russia hopes the mobilisation of 300,000 additional troops will replace the large number of combat losses they have suffered over the last nine months.
Putin is soon expected to begin Russia's second round of mobilisation, using the new troops to go on the offensive in 2023 and secure the provinces Russia annexed in September.
Ryan thinks Putin has had to endure the political risks of conscription, "because if he doesn't succeed here his very regime will be threatened, or worse".
"He waited a very long time to make this decision due to the domestic risk," Ryan said.
There has been widespread protest in response to military conscription throughout Russia.
Contrastingly, Ryan believes Ukrainians have an "absolute determination to see this through to the end".
Their determination is helped by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who Ryan described as a "very impressive, courageous and inspirational leader.
"He's leading these people to what we hope will be a victory in the next year or two.”
While "no war stops for winter", Ryan does believe the colder months "will change the pace at which the Russians and the Ukrainians can fight".
"It will not slow down the Russian strategic strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure," he told Newshub Nation.
"We'll probably see the Ukrainians at least attempt some small-scale offensives to keep chipping away at Russian-held territory within Ukraine.”
Ryan believes "we are a very long way” from Putin using nuclear weapons in the war.
"Putin understands the use of nuclear weapons would fundamentally change the nature of this war and of NATO's participation.
"NATO is a far larger and far more formidable threat to Putin."
However, Ryan said nuclear weapons remain a possibility and their use is "not entirely off the table".
For nuclear weapons to have a significant tactical impact on Ukraine’s military, "Putin would have to use more than one", Ryan said. "He would probably have to use several.”
"Tactically it wouldn't have a major impact but, strategically, it would change the game for Russia.”
Both Russia and Ukraine are entrenched in their positions at the moment and Ryan said he doesn't "see negotiations being productive at the moment".
Zelenskiy is unwilling to back down and Ryan supports his position: "Why shouldn't he want all the territory and all the citizens back in Ukraine?"
Watch the full interview.
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