Newshub Nation: How well can past trends predict how women will vote in 2023's general election?

It's been 130 years since wāhine won the right to vote in New Zealand and more women now vote than men.    

Aotearoa is a world leader for women in politics with three former female Prime Ministers and more women than men currently in Parliament.       

As election day draws near, parties are looking to capture every vote on offer including the all-important women's vote, but first they need to figure out how New Zealand women vote, and why.    

Newshub Nation's Laura Walters investigated the history of women's voting habits in New Zealand to try and understand how they may vote in this year's general election.   

Walters spoke to social scientist Dr Lara Greaves who specialises in voter attitudes, but Dr Greaves admitted it is complicated.    

"When you look back to the 1990s, there was a bit of a gender gap where women were more left-wing or more likely to be left-wing, but only by a small margin," Dr Greaves said.    

"In those earlier surveys we saw that women were more willing to spend money on things like education and social welfare and health, and that that was a clear gender gap."   

Over the last fifty years, Dr Greaves said that comparative gender gaps have varied significantly election-to-election, but in the previous two elections women were more likely to vote for Labour.    

In 2017, Labour did 6 percent better with women and National did 2 percent better with men.    

In 2020, Labour did 12 percent better with women. National did 3 percent better with men, and ACT did 4 percent better with men.    

An undeniable part of Labour's appeal to women was Labour leader Jacinda Ardern.   

Representation was also a factor, with 56 percent of Labour's caucus under Ardern being women, but this may soon be a thing of the past.    

Analysis of current polls predicts that the proportion of women MPs in Labour's caucus will drop below 50 percent after October's election.    

Meanwhile, National's newly-unveiled list boasts 21 women in its top 40.   

However, despite its best efforts, some analysis shows the proportion of women MPs in National's caucus post-election will likely be around 32 percent.    

The Green Party and Te Pāti Māori are backing the women in their caucus, both placing their women co-leaders at number one on the party list.    

On New Zealand First and ACT's lists, women comprise around a third of the candidates.    

2023's election features a very different landscape to 2020's - two women leaders have been replaced by two Chrises.    

It's been nine years since both National and Labour's leaders were men heading into an election, the last time being the 2014 election, fought between John Key and David Cunliffe.    

Greaves admits that "it's really hard as a political scientist to predict the gender selection for this election", but does predict it will narrow compared to the past two.   

Conventional wisdom dictates that the right struggles to capture the women's vote and this has been highlighted by the blowback to Luxon's comments surrounding abortion and contraception.   

However, the Roy Morgan poll has shown the margin between the left and right for women is getting slimmer, and in some cases, the right-bloc has overtaken the left.   

In some countries, like the United States, voter groups are easier to profile, with suburban moms actively courted by both the left and right, but things are more nuanced in Aotearoa.    

How Kiwi women vote, and what matters to them most, is also influenced by age, ethnicity, socio-economic status, and other life experiences.    

Key issues for Kiwi women that Newshub Nation spoke to include, but are not limited to, mental health, climate change, sexual education and period product accessibility, education, health, equality, and the cost of living.   

One woman we spoke to said: "I vote because I'm a women, and obviously not very long ago many people around the world couldn't vote, so that's why I vote. But I'm not sure being a woman influences who I vote for.'   

Another said: "We've got a more sensitive side when we do vote, and we think about our kids, and we think about equality - especially in the workplace, that's quite important to us - and that we're seen as equal to the men."   

However, some also don't believe it plays a part, with one woman saying, "I'm sure I'd vote the same if I was a man".   

With 49 sleeps to the election, and as many as 40 percent of New Zealanders yet to decide how they will vote, all eyes are on the political unicorn that is 'middle New Zealand'.   

Greaves said that there is a "mythical median voter that sits between Labour and National.   

"This is somewhere between 7 and 11 percent of people, and they are more likely to be women."   

Greaves said this is because "women are less likely to have strong partisan attachments".   

We've seen political parties, particularly Labour, courting these votes in recent weeks, with an avalanche of policies aimed at families such as paid parental leave, working for families, GST off fruit and vegetables, and a crackdown on youth vaping.    

The question remains as to whether these policies are cutting through.    

Deputy Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni said "I'm really proud of our track record when it comes to women and the policies we've implemented".   

She listed "ACC cover for maternal birth injuries, reinstatement of the training incentive allowance, child support parcel for those on sole parent benefit" as examples of Labour's commitment to Kiwi women.   

National's deputy leader Nicola Willis said: "I am very proud to have let my feminist self completely out of her cage in Parliament, to talk about how important it is that parents share parental leave.   

"So I proudly say the National Party is the party for women."   

The Greens are standing behind their record and co-leader Marama Davidson said she is "really, really proud of the long-standing staunch support for women, women's rights and experiences that we've always had".   

Te Pāti Māori's said "we come from a culture that's matriarchal but we're often in colonised spaces like this that are very patriarchal".   

"We will continue to remind wāhine of our role and what we have, and that we never stand alone."   

ACT deputy leader Brooke van Velden refused to make herself available to answer questions about what her party was doing to appeal to women voters.

Winning the votes of New Zealand women might be complicated but Dr Greaves has one piece of advice for politicians: don't stuff it up.    

"It's really important for parties and leaders to not be backed into a corner, to not have a gaffe that blows up into a whole kind of gender wars issue," she said.    

At this stage, the all-important women's vote is anyone's to lose.    

Watch the full video for more. 

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