McKay Chat: Why the All Blacks will beat France at the Rugby World Cup

Steve Hansen and Ian Foster (Photosport)

"This is wonderful for France, but it is terrible for rugby."

Those were the words of commiseration offered to the 3 Sport commentary team by legendary French first-five eighth Franck Mesnel moments after the All Blacks had been sent packing from the 2007 World Cup.

Despite Mesnel's graciousness, long after the full time whistle had blown, we sat speechless.

To my right was Andrew Mehrtens, clearly the most affected of the three former All Blacks who had just witnessed France, once again, dismantle the title favorites.

For Grant Fox and Alan Whetton there was the small consolation they remained two of the only XV players to win the Webb Ellis cup in a black jersey. But this was quite simply New Zealand rugby's darkest day.

Could it happen again? The answer to that is pretty simple. Yes, of course it could.

Once again the mighty All Blacks will face the great unknown that is the French rugby team.

They're the team that pays no respect to form, or peaking, or what happened last week.

Four times they've met in RWC sudden-death encounters. 

Way back in 1987 it went the All Blacks all the way. But in 1999 and 2007 the tri-colors tore apart their highly fancied opponents.

And in the 2011 decider there was just one point in it. Possibly the better team lost. 

Historically there's every reason to fear the French and what makes this even more challenging for Steve Hansen and his team is the fact the French do not fear the All Blacks.

They never have, and they never will.

Incredibly there are those who don't recognize what a huge loss Tony Woodcock is for this game. He is one player the French respect immensely.

They will not afford Wyatt Crockett the same kudos. Instead he will be a target as they seize on his long back and vulnerability at scrum time. They will have done their homework. They will take no prisoners, they will know who is on their game and who is off it. 

There are those who talk of taking 'utu', or revenge on the French for 2007. The only utu that should be exercised is by the All Blacks on themselves.

They were their own worst enemy before and during that infamous quarterfinal loss.

I still shudder at a younger Richie McCaw saying they knew very little about their opponents. Instead they had been concentrating on their own game. The kind of blissful ignorance that came back to bite an ill-prepared All Black team on the backside.

Fortunately in 2015, Steve Hansen has been in the comfortable position of being able to refer to the template of how to blow a World Cup campaign. After all he was one of the architects.

And because of that he's under the pump to avoid a repeat. To that end, he appears to have carefully devised a plan to hit the playoffs "ready and armed".  There's no basking in the false security of one hundred point romps against the likes of Romania and Portugal. The second half of their final pool game against Tonga gave me confidence his plan is starting to kick in. And I bet, unlike 2007, the French v Ireland pool game was compulsory viewing.

I'm also picking Hansen won't be afraid of making some tough calls. He needs a genuine open-side flanker and that probably means moving the skipper to blindside to accommodate Sam Cane.  Not that I think Richie McCaw has played any better than his fellow loosies.  That'll mean they'll have to make a call on number eight. I'd argue Jerome Kaino is in better form than Kieran Read.

A huge call I agree, just as the midfield will be. Conrad Smith was subbed early against Tonga with Sonny Bill Williams partnering Ma'a Nonu for most of the impressive second half.  Smith was benched for the 2007 game. It's hard to imagine a repeat of that selection. But he will be on notice, with Malakai Fekitoa another player who is staking his claim. 

A repeat of 2007 is highly unlikely. But if you're looking for a touch of déjà vu, how about the observation from Sir Graham Henry that "the All Blacks need to be wary, because the Australians are on top of their game".

Wow, thanks, I mean nobody else has noticed that. Maybe Sir Graham missed the Sydney Test earlier in the year. Unlike Sir Graham's team in 2007, who already had their eye on the semifinals, let's get past the French first. Then we can start thinking about the Springboks, and then maybe Australia.

Just quietly though, bring on the semifinal. 

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