NL Wildcard – Pittsburgh Pirates (98-64) V Chicago Cubs (97-65), Thursday 1pm (NZT)
The Scenario: It's a shame that the teams with the second and third best records in all of baseball have to play in this one game playoff. Essentially, one of the top three teams will be knocked out after one game of the post-season. But to make up for it, we get an absolute doozy of a game at PNC Park, the host of the past three National League wild card matches. The Pirates won in 2013 over the Cincinatti Reds, before falling to eventual World Series champions the San Francisco Giants in 2014. The rookie-laden Cubs are riding a wave of momentum and hype, their manager Joe Maddon is arguably the best in baseball. It'll be the experience of Pittsburgh up against the raw energy of Chicago.
Pitching:
- Pirates: Their ace Gerrit Cole has enjoyed a stellar season, picking up 19 wins at an ERA (earned run average over nine innings) of 2.60. He's a big game player and will thrive in this one game playoff scenario in front of a home crowd. He'll start the game, and if he's got the lead after six innings, he can probably exit knowing the game is won.
The Pirates bullpen is dominant, the best in the league, the eighth and ninth inning pairing of Tony Watson and Mark Melancon are close to unhittable, and middle options such as Joakim Soria, Jared Hughes and Antonio Bastardo have all proved very good.
- Cubs: If Cole has been dominant, Jake Arrieta has been lights out. The Cy Young Award front runner has picked up an MLB leading 22 wins, at a stunning ERA of 1.77. But it's what he's done post All-Star break that will amaze. Since the halfway point of the season, his ERA has been down at 0.75 over 15 starts. It's been one of the most dominant runs of form in sporting history. Will it end in the hostile atmosphere of PNC Park? If he exits the game with the Pirates within a run or two, it's game on. The Pirates are known for scoring runs late and while the Cubs bullpen is solid, it's certainly not untouchable.
- Result: You can't look past Arrieta, but Cole should match him for much of this. The Pirates need to get to the Chicago bullpen as soon as possible, and hope Cole keeps them in the match until then.
Offense:
- Pirates: Andrew McCutchen hits .348 against Arrieta. No one else on the Pirates comes close. The whole team hits just .176. The Bucs offense has been solid this season, with Starling Marte having his best offensive year and the veteran Aramis Ramirez proving a sound acquisition. McCutchen's hitting .361 with runners in scoring position, but the Bucs will first have to get those runners to second and third base.
- Cubs: The Cubs have plenty of long ball potential in their side, with Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber all possessing powerful bats. But they've not been particularly clinical in getting runners over home plate. The back end of their line-up is not particularly deep, but the top is very strong.
- Result: I think the Pirates nudge this one, their line-up is deeper than the Cubs and they've got more experience hitting in the post-season.
Final Verdict: This is as close to 50-50 as they come for mine. The Pirates offense is better, but it comes up against a better pitcher. I think offense will decide this game. Neither side is going to get runners on regularly, so making the most of them when they are on will be the difference. With that in mind, I'm picking the Pirates in a close, low-scoring affair.
AL Wildcard: Astros V Yankees, Wednesday 1pm
The Scenario: With the return of Alex Rodriguez to their line-up, the Yankees are again their formidable self. Meanwhile, the Astros are a team no one picked to make the post-season this year. Much like the Cubs, the feeling was their stock was on the rise but 2015 was too early – they've proved them wrong. While the NL playoff is two red hot teams, this is two teams that have limped into the playoffs. Both surrendered division leads to settle for wild card spots.
Pitching:
- Astros: Former seventh-round pick Dallas Keuchel will take the mound for the Astros. He's a Cy Young contender and has a stunning 15-0 record at home. Too bad they're playing in New York. Still, Keuchel has been excellent this season and the Astros can expect him to pitch deep into the game. Houston also has the sixth best bullpen (ERA) in the majors to rely on, with a starting pitcher like Keuchel followed by that it's going to be hard for the Yankees to score runs.
- Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka will take the mound at Yankee Stadium, and while he hasn't quite been as dominant as Keuchel, he's still been very good. In his last four starts he's got an ERA of 2.42, so he's coming in off some strong form. The Yankee bullpen ranks 16th in ERA but it features two lights out arms in Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances, so if Tanaka can get through the seven innings with the lead, it will be just that – lights out.
- Result: Hard to look past the Astros here, Keuchel gets the nod starting and the Astros have a stronger bullpen. Yankee stadium will be hostile though and it won’t be easy for the visitors to pitch in.
Offense:
- Astros: Houston's gone yard 230 times this season, the second most in MLB. But no player hit 30 as eleven Astros hit ten or more. That shows there are power threats throughout the line-up. Jose Altuve is a hit machine, and Carlos Correa is a shot for rookie of the year after blasting 22 home runs.
- Yankees: The Yankee offense has been very strong, too, but 31 home run hitter Mark Teixeira is injured, which leaves a huge hole in their line-up. They've got enough to cover him though, Brian McCann, Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran have all hit well, while rookie Greg Bird has softened the blow of Teixeira's injury.
- Result: Hard to separate these two, but I'm going on the Yankees for post-season experience and home town advantage.
Final Verdict: I like the Astros well rounded line-up, but their first playoff match since 2005 is a one-off game against the Yankees in New York. That looks a bridge too far for this young side. The Yankees have experience throughout their line-up, they'll have a huge crowd on their side, and while neither side has momentum, I think it'll be the Yankees advancing to the ALDS.
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