By David Di Somma
Will the Crusaders win their first Super Rugby title in eight years in coach Todd Blackadder's last year in charge?
The team's $3.75 odds at the TAB suggest they are a good chance, but no certainty - with the Chiefs, Highlanders, Hurricanes and the Lions the only other credible chances. After last weekend we now know what we have suspected for some time, the Aussies are nothing special.
For the Crusaders to win they must be at full strength. Their key players are not necessarily Kieran Read, Israel Dagg, their flying Fijian wings, or their All Black front row. While Richie Mo'unga has been a revelation at 10 filling Dan Carter's shoes, their key man in many regards is Ryan Crotty.
He is to this team what Conrad Smith was to the Hurricanes and the All Blacks.
Interestingly Crotty wasn't playing the three times the Crusaders have lost this season, starting with the opening game against the Chiefs when he was hampered by a thumb injury.
Remember the game at Forsyth Barr when Matt Faddes sliced through the Crusaders midfield for two tries? Crotty wasn't playing in that game either, nor did he travel to Fiji for the 23-13 loss against the Chiefs.
Ryan Crotty (Photosport)
Crotty is not a world-beater - but he is a super good organiser on defence, and his ability to strengthen the attack shouldn't be under-estimated. Like Conrad Smith he is largely mistake free and he gives his outside backs a lot of confidence knowing he will do his job properly.
That's not to say David Havili and Kieron Fonotia aren't good players - because they are. But the game is played at such pace and level that tiny lapses can have such big consequences.
Crotty must remain injury free (he has had some calf trouble) and his two tries against the hapless and hopeless Rebels is further ammunition as to his potency and importance to the side.
Without Crotty the Crusaders would be at longer odds to win their first title since 2008, and would be more unlikely than likely to go all the way.
With Crotty they are a strong contender.
Not even Stephen Hawking could work out who's going to play who before this weekend's final round of Super Rugby.
Do the Crusaders have to take on the Lions in Johannesburg and try and beat them twice at home in one season? Will they have to beat their bogey team the Chiefs, who have already beaten them twice in games outside of Hamilton?
Will the Hurricanes beat them this week and make their passage into the playoffs even trickier?
It's just educated guesswork to work out who is going to win this Super Rugby title. What is known for sure is that the Crusaders last win seems a lifetime ago - and it's ludicrous to continue considering them a Super Rugby powerhouse until they finally win another.
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