OPINION: The first races of the Louis Vuitton Qualifiers are moments away, kicking off five weeks of high-speed action on Bermuda's Great Sound. After 30 round robin races, one of the team will be going home, Oracle Team USA will take their leave until the America's Cup Match and the top four challengers will battle it out through the Challenger Playoffs.
So how will it all play out?
The general consensus is it will be "au revoir" after the Qualifiers with Groupama Team France the likeliest of the five challengers to be the first eliminated. They were the last team to get going and haven't performed particularly well in the practice races.
Up for grabs to the top team from the Qualifiers is a bonus point in the Cup Match. It's the first time any kind of head start has been offered up in the challenger series, and also the first time the defenders have ever raced in the challenger series. Coincidence? I think not. Oracle's motivation for putting themselves in the Qualifiers is to get that point and it's hard not to see them doing it.
Artemis Racing have been the form team in practice and will push them hard, but Oracle come into the Qualifiers with a bonus point from coming second in the America's Cup World Series, and it could be enough to edge the Swedes.
Sir Ben Ainslie's Land Rover BAR are a mystery. The Brits topped the ACWS and carry two bonus points into the Qualifiers, but have struggled with their AC50 since launch - including ramming it into a dock. Practice racing hasn't been much better, culminating in a collision with Emirates Team New Zealand. Those bonus points might come in handy to keep them safe from the bottom, but not much higher up the standings.
SoftBank Team Japan have copped criticism for their close relationship with Oracle, but it's hard to know whether Jimmy Spithill's shared all his toys with Dean Barker. Whether they have or not, the Japanese should benefit enough from working with the defenders to get some good results.
And that leaves the Kiwis. Will pedal-power rule the waves? That's the big question. Early signs have been promising from the practice races, but we're talking about practice. As the last team to turn up to the venue they might also still be learning the intricacies of the Great Sound. As much as we'd like to see them wipe the smirk off Spithill's face, make a statement to Barker and show up the Swedes, the predicted close racing could see them split their races with those teams. Either way, they should comfortable progress to the semi-finals.
Predicted Standings W-L Points
Oracle Team USA 8-2 9
Artemis Racing 8-2 8
Emirates Team NZ 7-3 7
Land Rover BAR 2-8 4
SoftBank Team Japan 4-6 4
Groupama Team France 1-9 1
Semi Finals
Artemis Racing 5 - 2 SoftBank Team Japan
The Swedes should be too good. Form from the practice racing points to them to clean up the best of nine series, though Barker's been in the game long enough to at least put up a fight.
Emirates Team NZ 5 - 1 Land Rover BAR
Ainslie's "love tap" on the Kiwi boat is all you need to know. With the round robin under their belt, the young ETNZ crew should be running (or cycling) at full steam. BAR might get lucky and steal a race but shouldn't threaten much more than that.
Final
Emirates Team NZ 5 - 3 Artemis Racing
There's a theory behind picking the Kiwis over Artemis. Yes, the Swedes have looked good in practice, especially at the high end of the wind range. Conversely, the extra power created by ETNZ's cycle grinding looks to give them better performances toiling in light winds. With the conditions expected to go lighter the longer the regatta goes on, it could tilt the playing field New Zealand's way. Peter Burling's also spent the last 4 years beating Nathan Outteridge in the 49er class, long may it continue.
America's Cup Match
Emirates Team NZ 7 - 6 Oracle Team USA
It's hard to show any hard evidence to back up this prediction - the Yanks have refused to engage in practice races with the Kiwis, and will have extra time to improve their boat after the Qualifiers. There's also a few unanswered question. Do they have a second boat hidden away? Is there a team of cyclists being turned into sailors at a secret location? But after fighting through the Louis Vuitton series the Kiwis will be battle hardened. Lesson have been learnt from San Francisco, and the same mistakes won't be repeated.
Greg Person is a producer for the AM Show.
