Joseph Parker defends his WBO Heavyweight World title against Hughie Fury in Manchester this morning. Newshub's Ross McNaughton has been following the build-up in England, and gives his prediction on the fight.
OPINION: This is quite a difficult fight to predict because there are so many unknown factors, especially around Hughie Fury. He's unbeaten in 20 fights, but household names don't exactly jump out when you look at his record. So it's extremely hard to gauge just how good he is when he's never been tested by top opposition.
Parker certainly has the better pedigree, having survived 12-round wars against the likes of Carlos Takam and Andy Ruiz. He's also knocked out former world champ Francois Botha (admittedly well past his prime when they fought) and Kali Meehan, another ageing but extremely well-credentialed fighter.
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The major question mark around Parker is the state of his shoulders. He's admitted he was significantly hampered by injuries in the build-up to the fights again Ruiz and Razvan Cojanu. Trainer Kevin Barry is adamant the shoulders are 100 percent for this fight, and everything I've heard around the traps this week backs that up.
Fury's present form is virtually impossible to assess, as he hasn't had an official bout in almost 17 months. Fury did have an exhibition match in London mid-year, but in reality that was little more than a glorified sparring session. Ring rust could be a major factor.
Fury's long layoff was due to a battle with skin condition acne conglobata. The Manchester-born fighter has spoken at length about how it robbed him of his energy and left him virtually unable to box. Now he's fully recovered, Fury claims to be a different fighter and says he's been able to train much more effectively.
Having said that, the challenger's physique didn't look at all altered at the weigh-in. Fury's giving up 5 or 6kg to Parker, and it appears to all be in upper body muscle. Parker is noticeably more muscular through the chest, shoulders and arms. I expect him to be a lot stronger in the clinch, and he should be able to dominate exchanges on the inside. Trying to tie Parker up could be a dangerous tactic for Fury as he doesn't look to have the physical power, and it could quickly drain his energy reserves.
One ace Fury does have up his sleeve is his Father and trainer Peter Fury. Peter was the tactical mastermind behind nephew Tyson Fury's 2015 upset win over then undisputed champion Wladimir Klitschko.
I expect Hughie to employ similar tactics to his more illustrious cousin. He has a height and rich advantage over Parker and will look to control the fight with his jab before moving out of danger.
How well he can do that is the key to the fight. If Fury is to win it, it will have to be on points. He's stated all week he'll knock Parker out, but I just don't think he has the power to get the job done inside the distance. Parker has a very solid chin, he's never been knocked down - the only time I can remember him being wobbled was very early in his career against Brazilian Marcelo Luiz Nascimento.
Which bring me to my own prediction. I'm backing Parker to win by knockout, probably in the mid-late rounds, but no later than the 10th. Despite his reach advantage and good movement around the ring I can't see Fury being able to keep Parker at bay. Parker's thrived against taller opponents in the past, and he'll look to land plenty of body shots before searching for the KO. Expect the WBO heavyweight belt to be back around the Kiwi's waist come the end of the fight.
Parker v Fury is available on Sky Arena, 8am Sunday September 24 (NZ time).
Ross McNaughton is a Newshub sports reporter/producer.
