Ollie Ritchie: All Blacks in need of northern wake-up call to prove Rugby World Cup credentials

OPINION: All roads lead to Twickenham.

This is where we're about to really learn if this All Blacks team has improved and grown in the way Ian Foster would have us all believe.

It's where we'll find out if a coaching shake up has actually brought the muscle, the shape and direction the All Blacks say they've found.

Because at Tokyo's Olympic Stadium, the All Blacks once again showed they are not there yet. The fact we are even talking about how close Japan came to an historic upset win over the All Blacks should be telling enough. 

Caleb Clarke against Japan.
Caleb Clarke against Japan. Photo credit: Image - Getty Images

They haven't found their groove. A couple of big wins over Argentina and Australia to back up a loss and a win by the narrowest - and most controversial - of margins the weeks prior has not restored faith and optimism. 

So with a sheepish win in Tokyo now complete, the All Blacks have three tests left this year to prove the progress Foster shouts from the rooftops about is actually there for all to see.

The All Blacks biggest threat at next year's World Cup will not come from the Pumas or the Wallabies, nor the Springboks. 

Their path to the World Cup final could well have to go through three of the northern hemisphere's heavyweights. 

A first-up poolplay encounter with hosts France in Paris - Steven Spielberg would have a field day with that storyline, after what happened this time last year - will define the All Blacks path at the World Cup. 

Depending on that result and that of the Pool B titans, a quarter-final clash with Ireland could be next up. Even if it's not, it will be South Africa. 

Survive that? A potential collision course with England in the semi-finals.

Now this is, of course, all hypothetical, but it shows that even if the All Blacks make it to the World Cup final, they'll have to go through three Six Nations giants. 

That's why the next three weeks are so pivotal. 

Wales and Scotland are both capable of causing upsets. They're two teams the All Blacks should have little trouble beating, but that was the case for Japan in Tokyo and the Pumas in Christchurch. 

The All Blacks must put out statement performances at Cardiff and Edinburgh, because Twickenham is not a place they want to go to on the back of scratchy, error-ridden and underwhelming performances. 

Eddie Jones and England will smell blood already. They have put a circle around this encounter for some time now. 

If the All Blacks can manage three convincing wins to end a turbulent season, they can truly head into a World Cup year confident in their growth, their purpose, their identity and their direction. 

If not, it could be a long couple of months in France next year.

Ollie Ritchie is Newshub's rugby reporter. Join us at 4:15am Sunday for live updates of the All Blacks v Wales test