Foreign diplomats in the United States are quietly bracing for Donald Trump to win reelection in 2020, a new report from Politico claims.
A slew of recent polls - including from Fox News, SurveyUSA, and Rasmussen - have shown Trump would likely be beaten by several of the wannabe Democratic challengers at next year's election.
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However, despite that, speculation remains Trump will win reelection by taking the vote of the so-called silent majority, similarly to how he did with his surprise 2016 election upset.
A new report from Politico is adding to that speculation saying, of the around 20 diplomats it has spoken to anonymously, none are willing to say Trump is going to lose.
While the outlet admits there is no public scientific survey on the issue - as diplomats aren't meant to have public opinions on another country's politics - most the outlet has spoken to say Trump has three key advantages:
- Trump is the incumbent
- The United States economy is in a strong position
- The Democrats don't have a clear frontrunner
One ambassador says every embassy in Washington is working "on the basis that the President has more than an even chance at being reelected". An Arab diplomat says: "The way it looks to people is it's going to be another four years".
Politico also quotes the former French ambassador to the United States, Gérard Araud, as saying: "In 2016, nobody believed he was going to be elected. People don’t want to be stupid twice."
The likelihood of Trump returning to power is significant as it may influence other countries' behaviour before the election.
Politico says China and Iran are likely hoping to wait Trump out before renegotiating a trade deal and nuclear deal, respectively, with the US, due to Trump's strict negotiating stance.
However, that could change the more people behind-the-scenes believe Trump will be in power post-2020.
But other countries, like Israel and North Korea, may prefer Trump remains due to the positive relationship his administration has built up with them.