Explained: UK's December 2019 election

On December 12 (UK Time), the first Christmas British election in nearly a century will be held. 

It's unclear whether the vote will herald a new session of consensus in the country's Parliament or an extension of the unprecedented political turmoil that has plagued it for the last three years.

But for the British people, the election may trigger a sense of dejavu, with several startling similarities to the 2017 vote.

Both were called for by a Conservative Prime Minister looking to strengthen their hand in a Parliament characterised by paralysis and division. Both saw Jeremy Corbyn - a 70-year-old self-professed socialist - as the leader of the Labour Party. And both revolved around parties' positions on Brexit.

One major difference, however, is the Prime Minister. 

A far cry from the steadfast, earnest and plain Theresa May, Boris Johnson's energetic, bold, and audacious personality has secured him many fans - and just as many detractors. His loud campaigning style was crucial in the shock Brexit victory in 2016, but he also failed to fulfil his leadership campaign promise of getting the UK out of the EU by October 31.

Numerous Brexit deadlines have come and gone, and the United Kingdom remains in the same spot it has for years. Whether that changes rests largely with whoever is elected into power.

How did Britain find itself here?

The road to Election 2019 began with the 2016 referendum for Britain to leave the European Union. The polarising, landmark vote saw the Brexiteers - commanded by the likes of Johnson and Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage - come out victorious. 

The result hadn't been forecast and in the subsequent commotion, Home Secretary Theresa May replaced David Cameron as Prime Minister. Cameron had supported the Remain campaign and didn't believe it appropriate to lead the country through a transition he didn't full-heartedly believe in.

While May had also supported staying in the EU, she promised to respect the people's verdict and enforce Brexit. But with a fragile working majority of only 17 MPs - a minuscule number within the tumultuous 650-member House of Commons - she announced a snap election for June 2017.

Bolstered by opinion polls showing strong support for a Conservative Government, May wanted to place herself in a better position to push a soon-to-be negotiated Brexit deal through the British Parliament.

But her house of cards came tumbling down when the polls were proven wrong and the Conservatives unexpectedly lost their majority, forced into a coalition with the Democratic Unionist Party.

The lack of a majority and growing division in her party over the Brexit Withdrawal agreement she negotiated - including revolt by Johnson - slowly disempowered May.

Parliament rejected her Brexit deal in January 2019, and her Government was forced to extend the deadline until October 31 - more than three years after the referendum.

With little support, May announced she would stand aside as Conservative Party leader, and therefore Prime Minister, making way for political firebrand Johnson to take charge in July.

Explained: UK's December 2019 election
Photo credit: Getty.

But just like his predecessor, Johnson was met with fierce resistance from colleagues both in and out of his party. Several attempts by the Prime Minister to force Brexit through by the October 31 deadline failed, with many of his MPs leaving the Conservative Party in rebellion. He even went so far as to suspend Parliament in the hope it would limit the opportunity for the opposition to bind his hands.

That suspension was ruled unlawful by the British Supreme Court and Johnson eventually found himself with no possible avenue to enforce a newly-negotiated Brexit deal. 

Earlier attempts by the Conservative Prime Minister to force a general election also failed, with Labour not willing to support a vote until a no-deal Brexit was ruled out. 

But only days before October 31, the European Union granted Britain a three-month Brexit extension and Corbyn announced he was finally comfortable with an election being held. 

"There is only one way to get Brexit done in the face of this unrelenting parliamentary obstructionism - this endless wilful fingers-crossed 'not me Guv' refusal to deliver on the mandate of the people - and that is, Mr Speaker, to refresh this Parliament and give the people a choice," Johnson said.

Corbyn said: "This election is a once-in-a-generation chance to transform our country and take on the vested interests holding people back."

The key players

Conservative Party

Led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the ruling party is currently in a coalition with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Johnson is one of Britain biggest supporters of Brexit, but failed to fulfil his leadership campaign promise of pushing it through by October 31. Prior to the election campaign beginning, Johnson's Government was able to get a new Brexit deal passed, but was unable to push it through the entire parliamentary process. That will be top of the agenda if he is successful in obtaining a new majority. Johnson will also seek to negotiate a free trade deal with the European Union by the end of 2020 and start talks with other countries. 

Similarly to Johnson's leadership campaign, the Conservatives' other big promises focus on the health system, education and crime.

Johnson wants to recruit 20,000 new police officers, increase investment in schools with a new nearly NZ$10,000 per-pupil funding scheme, and grant an additional NZ$68 billion each year to Britain's National Health Service (NHS).

The party also wants to introduce an Australian-style immigration system that will require most people wanting to move to the country to have a job offer and reduce the number of low-skilled immigrants.

Boris Johnson.
Boris Johnson. Photo credit: Getty.

Labour Party

Led by Jeremy Corbyn - the same man who took the party to defeat in 2017 - Labour's position on Brexit has been notoriously murky. If it wins the election, Labour will seek to renegotiate the current Brexit deal with the European Union, before putting the deal to another public vote. Brits could then vote to leave the EU with the new deal, or vote to remain in the market. Corbyn will stay neutral throughout the process.

Private schools are Labour's cross-hairs, with the party wanting to remove their charitable status and also create a National Education Service with the role of ensuring free education to every Brit. Corbyn is also talking big on crime and health. Labour wants to up the Conservatives with a promise to recruit 22,000 new police officers. It would also invest more than NZ$50 billion a year in the NHS.

Jeremy Corbyn.
Jeremy Corbyn. Photo credit: Getty.

Liberal Democrats

Led by Jo Swinson - the 39-year-old who has had a lot of praise for New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern - the Lib Dems has courted attention for its clear Brexit position - cancel it. If it doesn't win power, the party will back a second referendum, campaigning on remain. It's promised the British public a NZ$100 billion remain 'bonus' - money it would invest into public services if the costly Brexit process is cancelled. 

The party intends to increase income taxes in order to fund a NZ$70 billion investment in the NHS and hire more than 20,000 more teachers. A nearly NZ$10 billion "emergency cash injection" into schools has also been promised.

At least 80 percent of the United Kingdom's electricity will come from renewables sources by 2030 if the party gets its way.

Jo Swinson.
Jo Swinson. Photo credit: Twitter.

Brexit Party

Led by Nigel Farage, the Brexit Party unsurprisingly wants a clean, hard Brexit with no prolonged transition period. It's promising a NZ$25 billion investment in public services and to cut the cost of living. It says that money would come from what would be saved by not having to deal with the EU anymore.

The party takes a hardline on crime, calling for more visible policing on the streets and less focus on "enforcing restrictions of free speech". It would cut interest on student loans but also axe a current target to have 50 percent of young people in higher education.

Farage has also promised to reduce annual immigration and crackdown on "illegal immigration".

Nigel Farage.
Nigel Farage. Photo credit: Getty.

There are several other parties which could have an impact on Britain's future. The Scottish National Party is popular in Scotland and wants to cancel Brexit. Leader Nicola Sturgeon also intends to hold a second independence referendum. Britain's Green Party wants to invest $NZ200 billion in green infrastructure and cutting emissions to net-zero by 2030. The Welsh Plaid Cymru party is also backing a second Brexit referendum.

How does the election work?

Unlike New Zealand's electorate and party-vote system, Britain works by first-past-the-post within each of its 650 constituencies. That means the UK's Parliament is made up of MPs who have each won a constituency, with no list MPs. The party with the most elected MPs is invited by the Queen to form a Government or enter into a coalition if it doesn't have a majority. The leader of that party becomes the Prime Minister. There are 46 million voters across the nation.

What are the polls showing? Who is picked to win the 2019 election?

As there is no overall party vote determining the makeup of Parliament, it can be difficult to accurately forecast the election result. Opinions on political parties can vary significantly between constituencies, so pollsters need to take into account a wide range of electorates.

One of the most accurate at the 2017 election was the YouGov Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification poll. It takes data from more than 100,000 interviews over a week, allowing for a range of demographics and constituencies.

Released in late November, it projected the Conservatives would win 359 seats, up from 317 in 2017. That would be enough for a majority of 68.

Labour is expected to take 211, down from 262. SNP will take 43 while the Liberal Democrats are forecast to win 13.

This poll was largely in line with many others taken over the last month which show the Conservatives with a wide lead. However, Labour had risen significantly since the start of November.

When will the result be known?

The election will take place on Thursday, December 12 (UK Time). With New Zealand 13 hours in front of Britain, results should be expected on the morning of Friday 13 (NZ Time). If the results turn out similar to what the polls are predicting - with Johnson's Conservatives receiving a healthy majority - a victory for the Tories could be called quickly. If a coalition is required, a final result - and what it means for Britain - is unlikely to be known for days. 

The first sitting day of the next Parliament is set down for December 17. Whoever takes power will have to quickly deal to Brexit, with the current deadline set for the end of January.