A medical professor estimates 3000 Australians could die from coronavirus COVID-19, but warns that number could be much higher.
Australia has now recorded more than 90 cases of the potentially deadly illness, which originated in Wuhan, China in late December, with three Australians having succumbed to the virus. It's been confirmed the illness is now spreading via community transmission, meaning people becoming sick without leaving the country or coming into contact with family members who have been overseas.
Professor Robert Booy, a medical professor at the University of Sydney, has warned the illness is "spreading fast".
"We have got community transmission, more and more places are going to have transmission," he said in a new video released by the Australian Academy of Science.
"COVID-19 spreads quite easily between people when they cough or sneeze but also when the droplets that come out hit surfaces, remain viable for many hours, someone else touches them, then they touch their mouth and their nose and their eyes and they auto-inoculate themselves."
An infected individual can pass on the virus to two or three others, while Prof Booy said someone with influenza can infect one or one and a half other people.
"Influenza is estimated to kill about 3000 Australians every year. This new COVID pandemic could do exactly the same. About 3000 people might die.
"That's the best-case estimate that I can think of. The worst-case estimate is many thousands."
Among the measures laid out in the Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (COVD-19), is the possibility of school and workplace closures, as well as the cancellation of mass gatherings. That could mean entertainment and sporting events being halted.
But Prof Booy says there is no evidence yet that going to a mass gathering is "a problem".
"So, going to the restaurant, going to a football match, going to a concert, they're all just fine."
Heading away on a cruise ship, however, is a different story.
"I would say not a good idea. Cruise ships are great places for spreading infection."
Currently, hundreds are trapped on the Grand Princess vessel off California. That cruise ship has at least 21 confirmed cases. In February, multiple Kiwis were quarantined in Japan on the Diamond Princess, which saw
Prof Booy recommended people follow standard public health advice, like sneezing into your elbow and thoroughly washing your hands. He also echoed the World Health Organisation (WHO) in saying that in most cases, self-isolation at homes, rather than hospitals, is adequate.
A New Zealand public health professor said in February that billions of people could become infected worldwide.
"A portion of people die, we just don't know how big that proportion is. And that's something that's starting to become a very important piece of knowledge because we're talking about millions, ultimately billions of people getting infected," Prof Michael Baker said.
The mortality rate, however, remains a mystery. While WHO said last week it was 3.4 percent, experts have suggested it could be higher or lower.
How can I protect myself?
- avoid touching the mouth, nose and eyes with unwashed hands
- washing your hands before eating
- carrying a hand sanitiser at all times
- being particularly mindful of touching your face after using public transport or going to the airport
- carry tissues at all times to cover the mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing (then dispose of it)
- not eating shared or communal food
- avoiding shaking hands, kissing cheeks
- regularly cleaning and sanitise commonly used surfaces and items, such as phones and keys
- avoiding close contact with people suffering from or showing symptoms of acute respiratory infection
- seeking medical attention if you feel unwell.
A full explainer on protecting yourself from coronavirus can be found here, while here are eight things you should know about the virus.
The Ministry of Health is reminding the public to get in touch with Healthline on 0800 358 5453 if they have symptoms or concerns.
