Model predicts Donald Trump will lose US election as the economy suffers

Donald Trump is predicted to lose the 2020 election, with Democratic nominee Joe Biden predicted to win 65 percent of the votes.
Donald Trump is predicted to lose the 2020 election, with Democratic nominee Joe Biden predicted to win 65 percent of the votes. Photo credit: Getty

A new model is predicting Donald Trump will suffer a "historic" defeat in the 2020 US election as a result of his "greatest political asset"- the economy- suffering through the pandemic.

Oxford Economics released their latest report on Wednesday which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results.

CNN reported they have a strong track record of predicting the outcomes of US elections, only getting two wrong since 1948.

Before the pandemic, Oxford Economics had forecast Trump would win with 55 percent of the popular vote but now their latest data predicts Democratic nominee Joe Biden will win 65 percent of the vote, and Trump will lose with 35 percent.

"An unemployment rate above its global financial crisis peak, household income nearly six percent below its pre-virus levels, and transitory deflation will make the economy a nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November," Oxford Economics said, NBC reported.

"It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favour Trump."

The model assumes the economy will continue to be in bad shape when the election takes place on November 3 which will impact the chances of the incumbent president.

"The economy would still be in a worse state than at the depth of the Great Depression," the Oxford Economics report said.

But experts believe the election result will be heavily dependent on what happens with the pandemic in the coming six months before US citizens vote.

"If new infections really pick up, people will conclude Trump opened the country too soon," chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments Greg Valliere told CNN. 

"But if new infections drop, Trump will get some credit."

He also says Trump has the opportunity to reframe his campaign to pass on the blame of the issues caused by the pandemic to China.

In the 2016 election Trump also lost the popular vote but was able to secure the presidency by taking major states Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida by small margins. 

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