Kiwi epidemiologists are breathing a sigh of relief after New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian ruled out abandoning the state's elimination strategy towards COVID-19.
NSW is struggling to get on top of an outbreak of the Delta variant of the virus, which is more than 200 percent more infectious than the original strain. Of 44 new cases recorded up to Thursday night, 29 were in the community while infectious.
"We know the Delta variant is highly infectious and it can cause an explosive increase in cases," University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker told Newshub.
"On average each case infects five to six others. You have to basically shut down outbreaks very rapidly, or you lose control of them - as we've seen in places like Fiji."
Fiji's outbreak has been so explosive, the virus is spreading faster per head of population than at the height of India's tragic wave earlier this year, in which hundreds of thousands of people lost their lives.
The Sydney Morning Herald on Friday reported three senior ministers in the state government were keen to see NSW drop the elimination strategy and live with the virus.
Berejiklian quickly shut down those rumours, saying that would result in "thousands and thousands of hospitalisations and death".
Dr Baker agrees.
"I don't think they're having a very serious discussion about that. I know it was flagged, but I think that discussion was quite quickly shut down by their political leaders, basically because they know it's not going to work. You can't even think about moving to a different strategy until you have high vaccine coverage."
NSW's vaccine coverage is similar to New Zealand's - about 9 percent. A recent study based on New Zealand's demographics found it could take 97 percent coverage to effectively stop an outbreak of Delta here.
None of the three ministers who spoke to the Sydney Morning Herald wanted to be named. One told the paper Aussies were looking at other countries with outbreaks and noticing not as many people were dying compared to previous outbreaks. The UK's death rate has remained low during its latest outbreak, which experts put down to the fact more than half the adult population is now vaccinated. Vaccines not only reduce the chance of catching COVID-19, but if you are infected, vaccines help keep it to a mild illness.
Australia's vaccine coverage is nowhere near that of the UK.
"You only have to look at countries that have taken a lighter touch and moved away from elimination to see what a disaster that is," said Dr Baker. "You've seen examples in Taiwan, Singapore and in Fiji at the moment. It's unthinkable, and I don't imagine Australia will seriously consider that… They just know how shocking it is in terms of the harm it does to public health but also the damage it does to economies. They are very aware of the evidence."
Dr Baker's view is backed up by biomathematician Michael Plank, of the University of Canterbury and Te Pūnaha Matatini, whose modelling has helped inform the New Zealand strategy - also elimination.
"I don't think it's going to work. Not while the vaccination rate is relatively low," he told Newshub. "If there's one thing we've learned over the last 18 months it's that half-measures don't work out well in the long run. It's best to go hard and go early… get it under control rather than let it rumble on for weeks or months on end."
