New Zealand will remain an island despite supercontinent forming in 250 million years, says science

  • 26/09/2023

Scientists have revealed which countries will likely form a supercontinent in 250 million years' time - and New Zealand isn't one of them. 

Hypothesised by geologist Christopher Scotese in 1982, Pangaea Proxima - also known as Pangea Ultima (PU) - is a potential future configuration of the Earth's landmasses based on past cycles of continental drift. 

The hypothesis suggested the world would move towards a situation where all the globe's territories would be pushed together - amalgamating South and North America with Europe and Africa, and nearly fully closing the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. 

Should the hypothesis ever come to fruition, Australia would bump into Asia and Africa would collide with Europe. Eventually, Antarctica, North America and South America would join too. 

But research showed even if this happened, New Zealand would likely remain on its own - off the coast of Australia. 

One figure, in the research modelled by the University of Bristol's Alexander Farnsworth, showed seven continents merged into the single supercontinent. New Zealand, however, was one of the last remaining islands. 

Supercontinent.
Photo credit: Nature Geoscience

While New Zealand looked similar in the figure as it does today, life on Aotearoa wouldn't be as we know it.

"A natural consequence of the creation and decay of Pangea Ultima will be extremes in pCO2 (partial pressure of carbon dioxide) due to changes in volcanic rifting and outgassing," the study said. 

"The formation and decay of PU will limit and, given a much greater source-to-sink ratio of pCO2, ultimately end terrestrial mammalian habitability on Earth by exceeding their warm thermal tolerances, billions of years earlier than previously hypothesised." 

According to the study, the formation of Pangea Ultima would possibly increase the probability of "massive hyperthermal events". 

"We need to make sure we keep the climate in a cooler, more hospitable condition if we want to continue to thrive," Farnsworth said, as reported by Stuff

His research was published on Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience.