German researchers one step closer to forecasting earthquakes across the world

Researchers are optimistic they are one step closer to forecasting earthquakes.  

Fresh data from Germany has found some highly unique earth movements, or warning shots, which have come before some of the world's most violent quakes. 

In February, images of rescuers clawing through kilometres of rubble with their bare hands stopped the world in its tracks.  

Around 50,000 people lost their lives in the Turkey and Syria quakes, and this week, German researchers believe they've made an important discovery.  

It all started in a lab.   

"It's really interesting," GNS Science seismologist Dr Matt Gerstenberger said. 

"We've known for a long time, from experiments that scientists do in the lab, so they create earthquakes in smaller rocks in a lab.

"Before those earthquakes happen within the rocks there are little tiny earthquakes that happen, and they tend to happen in predictable patterns."

But for the first time, those patterns have been witnessed in the real world.  

Unique seismic signals were picked up eight months before the massively destructive Turkey earthquake. 

It means there might have been warning signs for other similar quakes - like New Zealand's 2016 Kaikoura shake-up.   

But spotting these warning signs is only a small step in the right direction.  

"It's one thing to say 'OK a big earthquake has happened and let's look what happened before'," he said.

"It's much harder when these earthquakes are happening in real time - what is this telling us about the future."

Massey University's Dr Lauren Vinnell from the Joint Centre for Disaster Research agreed.  

"The research deals with earthquake forecasting which helps us have a little bit of certainty where large earthquakes might happen," Dr Vinnell said. 

"We may never be able to predict earthquakes, obviously it would be great if we can. But anything we can learn to help us to understand them more is still valuable." 

But regardless of humankind's power to predict when quakes will happen, what is known for certain is that they will happen.  

"It is important that our cities get more prepared now for earthquakes - because we know they can happen anywhere at any time," she added.  

It's another piece to the puzzle, that could one day save thousands of lives.