Experts say vaccine Canterbury's 'impossible' 100 percent first vaccine dose stat is false and misleading

False and misleading - that's how our COVID-19 vaccination statistics have been described by industry experts.

It comes after New Zealand's second-largest DHB showed a first dose rate of more than 100 percent.

Canterbury could lay claim to the title of 'COVID vax capital of New Zealand', leading the second dose rates with almost 99 percent, and first doses even higher.

According to the Ministry of Health, more than 100 percent of people over the age of 12 are at least partially vaccinated there.

"In terms of the way it's calculated, it's just a false measure of the actual vaccination rate," University of Otago Department of Preventive and Social Medicine Associate Professor Brian Cox says.

"It doesn't literally mean every last person has been vaccinated," COVID-19 modeller Professor Michael Plank.

 

Vaccination stats are calculated by using health service data that only includes people enrolled with a primary health organisation or who've used other health services during a calendar year.

"It's important to have the vaccination rates as accurate as possible, and that's not the best method to estimate the vaccination rates," Prof Cox says.

"If you use the Stats NZ estimate for the total population in Canterbury, the vaccination rate is more like 96 percent," Prof Plank says.

It's estimated tens of thousands of people could be missed.

"Three to five percent of people are not registered with a GP or have had recent contact with the health service," Prof Cox says.

Even using the ministry's data the numbers are fluctuating. So how is it even possible to vaccinate 100 percent of the population?

"100 percent is obviously a bit misleading and it potentially disguises a bit where the gaps are," Prof Plank says.

Other gaps are being filled by the likes of Recognised Seasonal Employer workers who aren't part of our public health system.

"It actually looks like as a result of them being vaccinated here in New Zealand, it looks like we've vaccinated over 100 percent, so there's a couple of reasons why you'll see that in some regions," Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says.

Regions like Canterbury still leading the way, but with fewer jabs than before.