NZ Election 2020: National struggles in poll released before Judith Collins' rise

National struggled to make much of a dent in Labour's public support in June, according to a poll released on Tuesday, but conducted before Judith Collins' rise to the leadership.

During June, Roy Morgan found Labour had the support of 54.5 percent of those surveyed, compared with National on 27 percent. The Green Party is at 9 percent, Act is on 5 percent, and New Zealand First sits at 1.5 percent.

In terms of parties outside of Parliament, Roy Morgan mentions that The Opportunities Party (TOP) sit at 1.5 percent and the Maori Party are at 1 percent. 

Labour was down 2 percent on Roy Morgan's May results, while National was up 0.5 percent. The Greens jumped 2 percent, Act rose by 1.5 percent, while New Zealand First dropped 1 percent. 

NZ Election 2020: National struggles in poll released before Judith Collins' rise
Photo credit: Roy Morgan.

On these numbers, Labour could govern alone, while Act would cross the 5 percent threshold, and New Zealand First would be out of Parliament if it didn't win a seat.

Roy Morgan polled 879 electors during June via landline and mobile. Of the electors, 6 percent didn't name a party. They were asked: "If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?"

"Today's Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows the strong and decisive leadership of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in leading New Zealand through the COVID-19 pandemic is set to deliver an expanded majority for the Labour Party-led coalition at September’s election," said Roy Morgan chief executive Michele Levine. 

These results reflect National under Todd Muller's leadership, which came about after he rolled Simon Bridges in May. 

Prior to that coup, the Newshub-Reid Research poll had National on 30.6 percent, Labour on 56.5 percent, the Greens on 5.5 percent, New Zealand First sitting at 2.7 percent and Act on 1.8 percent. 

Levine said National's "new leader faces a mountain to climb to challenge a popular Government". 

That new leader was revealed on Tuesday night to be Judith Collins. 

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down five points from 158.5 in May to 153.5 in June. It says 72 percent of electors believe New Zealand is heading in the right direction compared to 18.5 percent who believe it's going the wrong way.

In contract, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating increased by 7.2 points in June to 104.5, the first time above the "neutral level of 100" since the pandemic began.