ANALYSIS: The troubling thing about the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll for Labour is it captures its big-bang policies.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins has been batting off questions about other polling, saying they did not capture the campaign and didn't take into account the party's free dental pledge.
But this poll does. On this poll, Labour has dropped 5.5 points to 26.8 percent as National soars into the 40s.
The party's best efforts are not turning heads while Hipkins is crashing with best foot forward.
Hipkins' likeability over National leader Luxon was his one hope at holding his grasp on power.
That is now slipping from his grip, with Luxon now matching him in the preferred-Prime Minister rankings.
Save a campaign miracle, Hipkins is heading for a hiding. There's no Hail Mary pass to another person, all they can do is dig in.
Labour has to go negative now and dial up the fear factor as its positive policies aren't landing.
ACT leader David Seymour's latest tantrum - suggesting he could only give 'confidence' to a new Government and make it earn 'supply' - gives Labour the ammo.
Seymour has been under pressure over conspiracy candidates and blowing up ministries and now he is threatening to blow up a governing arrangement if he doesn't get his way, and his way includes massive cuts in the multiple billions
Confidence but no supply hasn't really been tested in New Zealand, but let's be clear, if Seymour refuses to give National the numbers to pass a Budget, that's the end of the Government - tootle up to Dame Cindy Kiro and hand in their resignation. It's over territory.
They've been flinging the chaos label at the left, but I can't think of something more chaotic than what Seymour is proposing.
This is not a reply-guy clickbait situation, Seymour, it's the Government.
Jenna Lynch is Newshub's Political Editor.