OPINION: The announcement that Jerome Kaino was to undergo knee surgery this week was a surprising one.
With just six weeks until the international break, his injury layoff means he won't likely play another match until the All Blacks' first Lions Test on June 24.
Considering what's at stake and the current condition of New Zealand's back-row options, that's a huge risk to take.
Thanks to the country's ability to produce fine open sides, the black number seven shirt is well served with Sam Cane, Matt Todd and Ardie Savea all capable of walking into any other international team in the world.
However, when you examine the depth of players able to play six and eight, international quality stock are surprisingly few and far between.
Liam Squire and Elliot Dixon have been groomed to be able to play both in the six and eight roles at an international level. But currently, they're far from All Black starting players not to mention the injury troubles suffered by both this season.
Even if they were fit and ready to go, with the Lions boasting a typically sizable pack, there's no way you could expect either player to slot in to start should Kaino's injury recovery take longer than expected.
Considering this, Kaino's prolonged absence would place huge pressure on captain Kieran Read. The All Blacks have never really lacked depth in any position, but should Kaino's injury layoff stretch into the Lions series, they're one more injury away from a crisis.
Other options that could possibly be on the table should the worst happen includes slotting Savea into six or eight, as he has done for the Hurricanes this season.
But the All Blacks' selectors have previously demonstrated an unwillingness to start with essentially two sevens in the back-row. And against a bulky and ball-running Lions pack, the All Blacks will lack significant size.
With Super Rugby form players being the next option, there's every chance the likes of Brad Shields, Jordan Taufua or Luke Whitelock could get a call up.
But throwing Test rookies into a Lions series comes with infinitely more risk.
If a selection had to be made to fill Kaino or Read's spot, judging by current form and experience, the next loose forward in line should be Steven Luatua. He's performed well since coming back for the Blues and while he hasn't set the field alight for the All Blacks before, the selectors know he's capable of doing a job.
The likelihood of the All Blacks' selectors getting caught with their pants down in the back row is low. There's every chance that they sat down with the Blues coaching team and Kaino and planned every aspect of his recovery and return to get him back at peak fitness as soon as possible.
However, surgery is surgery and there's always risk. If Kaino's not fit come June 24, the All Blacks selectors will be throwing the dice regardless of their replacement. That's when the real games start.
Matt Tewhatu is a digital producer for Newshub.
